Celtics-Mavericks Preview: Familiar Foes Clash in NBA Finals

The Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks are four games shy of penciling their names in the history books. Let's take a deep dive into potential strategic maneuvers and examine key factors in determining our 2024 NBA Champion.

BY JACKSON BOAKE

Nothing beats the NBA Finals.

…At least, that’s the case for us basketball sickos. Conference titans collide in best-of-seven trench warfare as the chance for players, coaches, executives, equipment managers, etc., to stamp their legacy with a title finally falls within the scope of reality. Media discourse is as hostile and dumbfounding as ever. Superstitious fans overdose on superstitiousness.

But past tribulations add yet another fold to Mavericks versus Celtics; the culmination of a brewing rivalry marinated in former friendships and nasty breakups. The air permeates with vengeance, hatred, and the cleansing power of burning sage. 

Oh—none of that even accounts for respective kingpins Luka Doncic and Jayson Tatum; eternally pitted against each other by manufactured cliches, generalities, and absolutes. Pugnacious Twitter fingers are working overtime as ESPN cycles through variances of “face of the league” segments.

Contrarily, not a fabrication: the Kyrie-Boston and Kristaps-Dallas feuds represent two of the messier, more publicized player-team disputes in NBA history. These are not media contrivances, but rather genuine dissensions mired in role obscurity, ego bruising, and clashing basketball ideologies.

Kristaps Porzingis took ownership for his part in dissolving the relationship with Dallas. Upon his arrival, expectations were sky-high for the 22-year-old amalgamation of height, dexterity, and ingenuity. Ambition and inexperience clouded his willingness to conform to team needs, climaxing in open disobedience toward Coach Rick Carlisle. Porzingis has since matured—taking criticisms in stride and adapting to diversified responsibilities in Washington and Boston. Things appear amicable nowadays between him and the Mavericks.

Kyrie Irving, on the other hand, found himself besieged by the state of Massachusetts during a Celtics-Nets first-round clash two years ago. Tensions seethed as Irving engaged in mortal combat with Bostonians; highlighted by obscenities, truculent gestures, and a 4-0 sweep in favor of the Celtics. Irving, perhaps phased, struggled mightily in the final three games of the series.

This is where it gets hazy. Both Irving and Celtic lifers now appear somewhat moved on. Boston players have stuck their heads out in the media to defend Kyrie. With Irving settled into a new home and embracing his co-star duties alongside Doncic, it feels as if the friction has subsided—at least, to an extent.

Will things between Boston and Irving remain cordial, or will the momentous stakes of the NBA Finals reignite the flame? Time will tell. For what it’s worth, I’d put my car, house, and the rest of my life savings on the latter.

But the intricacies of the 2024 NBA Finals extend far beyond exhausted narratives and bitter divorcees. The stage is set—let’s dive into some critical strategic variables.

Dallas on Offense

Doncic, fresh off slicing Minnesota’s defensive meat-grinder into bits, remains a virtuosic, scheme-proof offensive superstar. His distinguished repertoire predicates on timing, feel, and intuition. Coverages are meticulously designed to mitigate Doncic’s counterpunches; “stopping him” is unachievable.

In the Western Conference Finals, he played through the chest of Jalen McDaniels—a pronounced point-of-attack stopper, but captive to an overwhelming mismatch in size and strength. Doncic’s bruising, deliberate approach to creating space renders lateral quickness an ineffective deterrent on its own. He isn’t blazing by defenders; rather, it’s shoulder bumps, decelerations, head-fakes, and stepbacks galore.

But Boston boasts the apparatus for unique counters. Jrue Holiday, Jaylen Brown, and Tatum pair agility with tremendous positional size. While they’ll still be at the mercy of Doncic’s shotmaking, they possess the requisite disruptive qualities to tighten shooting windows and passing angles. 

The Celtics leaned on a combination of Holiday and Brown for the Doncic assignment in two regular-season matchups. Let’s examine their options:

Holiday: A brick wall with suffocating lateral skills. Warps through ball screens. Out-lengthed by Luka, so offers weaker contests by nature and is probably less effective as a chaser in pick n’ rolls when Boston’s bigs are in drop. 

Brown: Quick, rangy, aggressive, physical. He’s voiced his likeness for seizing marquee defensive matchups in the past. Sometimes blindsided by ball screens, and his questionable discipline will be challenged by Doncic’s manipulation tactics.

Tatum: Perhaps Boston’s best isolation stopper when all bets are off; evident by his incarceration of Kevin Durant in the 2022 postseason. Big body with sharp instincts and tremendous functional strength. Not as quick as Brown or Holiday. Can’t afford to pick up early fouls, so this likely caps out as a late-game option. 

My bet: Brown gets the first crack at Doncic while Holiday takes Irving-duty, or potentially splits it with Derrick White. 

Tatum’s malleability adds a fun wrinkle to Boston’s defense. Instead of matching him with a wing, Mazzulla often slides him onto the big; in this case, Daniel Gafford or Dereck Lively II. This allows the Celtics to switch freely in pick n’ rolls without conceding mismatches. 

Both Indiana and Cleveland spammed ball screens to attack Al Horford, who’s exploitable when guarding in space and lacks the verticality to consistently deter shots in drop coverage. Myles Turner erupted in the first half of Game 1 off pops and delayed rim-rolls. 

Boston then nullified the Tyrese Haliburton-Turner pick n’ roll by swapping matchups and switching ball screens with Tatum. Horford stayed out of the crosshairs by pairing with a low-frequency roll-man in Pascal Siakam. 

Porzingis, previously sidelined by a soleus strain, offers more optionality. Unlike Horford, he’s one of the league’s premier drop bigs. Doncic is a certified “drop-killer” (ask Minnesota), so I’d still probably avoid this avenue if I’m Boston. Porzingis’ mobility following his injury is also in question. Regardless, expect some experimentation in the early stages of the series.

The Celtics’ defense is so fun that I haven’t even touched on White yet. He’ll definitely share the Irving assignment, but his real superpowers are off the ball. I’d trust him most as a helper off Derrick Jones Jr. and/or PJ Washington—where he can navigate the passing lanes, offer blindspot contests on Doncic and Irving, and fly out on corner shooters when needed. 

That was a lot of information. To summarize, here’s my blueprint:

• Holiday on Irving

• Brown on Doncic

• White and Porzingis on Jones and Washington

• Tatum on Gafford/Lively

Ultimately, Doncic will use ball screens to manipulate matchups. He’ll relentlessly hunt Pritchard and Hauser in their minutes, creating a size and strength discrepancy that swings heavily in the Mavericks’ favor. I wouldn’t be surprised if White finds himself called into the fold when Boston has their strongest defensive corps on the floor. 

To combat adverse pick n’ roll pairings, Boston can blitz Doncic—forcing the ball out of his hands and surrendering the dump pass to the the roller. Washington in particular will be tasked with making key floor-reads out of the short roll. If Washington feels comfortable hitting 3s from above the break (not always his specialty), he can punish double-teams in the pick n’ pop game.

Ball security will be crucial for Dallas in this matchup. A track meet spells death against Boston; they’re completely unstoppable with crossmatches against an unset defense.

There’s more tactical variability in Boston’s defense than Dallas’ offense. The Mavericks are an open book: pick n’ roll and isolation dynamism from Doncic and Irving while the auxiliary components pounce on pre-created advantages. A simple recipe, yet a nightmare to stop.

Boston on Offense

The Mavericks have crushed expectations defensively thus far in the postseason, but the Celtics offense is a different beast. It’s death by drive-and-kick: paint touch, kickout, swing pass, repeat. They have shooters and playmakers at all five positions. When they compromise the first fold of the defense, it perpetuates an irrepressible offensive process.

Dallas' defense leaned on length and disruption to veil its vulnerabilities in each of the first three rounds. The Clippers (Russell Westbrook and PJ Tucker), Thunder (Josh Giddey and Lu Dort), and Timberwolves (Kyle Anderson and Nickeil Alexander-Walker) all offered scot-free outlets for defensive help. The Mavericks funneled penetration to their bigs in the paint while rangy wing-wardens shaded kick-outs to non-shooters on the perimeter.

Where the Celtics pose a challenge, however, is in the concerted nature of their marksmanship—in simpler terms, everyone can shoot. Each of their top eight can burn you through a combination of volume and accuracy. This multiplies the demand for perfect rotations off the ball from Dallas.

Worth noting: Assuming full health, I doubt Mazzulla extends the second line of his rotation beyond Payton Pritchard-Sam Hauser-Horford. Oshae Brissett and Xavier Tillman Sr. had their moments versus Indiana, but Dallas' defensive strategies will exploit their spotty three-point shooting. 

Expect Boston to headhunt mismatches and bend the Mavericks’ defense out of shape through a myriad of pick n’ roll variations. 

The Celtics can target Doncic or Irving by inverting ball screens, using Tatum as the initiator and Holiday or White as the screener to bring their choice of second defender into the action. Dallas will either show-and-recover or surrender the switch; regardless, this is an achievable means of consistent downhill creation. 

In his minutes, Horford’s above-the-break shooting will be key bellwethers for this series. I think Dallas willingly surrenders these looks in favor of sending extra help when Boston pressures the paint. Horford’s accuracy fluctuates heavily between games, so anticipate the Mavericks adjusting on the fly if things go south.

Pick n’ pops with Porzingis offer multiple potential advantages for Boston. Dallas likely starts in a drop with Tatum as the ball-handler, banking on the continuation of his erratic pull-up shooting this postseason. Porzingis creates a new dilemma, however; his pops can pull Lively/Gafford away from the hoop and decongest driving lanes for Tatum. 

An alternative option for Dallas? Simply switching the wing-big pick n’ roll to stay attached to Porzingis and out of rotation. Of course, this concedes a more favorable matchup for Tatum to attack with his quickness. But I think that’s a decent tradeoff for the Mavericks, as it combats the threat of Porzingis while eating valuable seconds off the shot clock. 

White, not Tatum, has been Boston’s highest-frequency pick n’ roll ball-handler this postseason, and his effectiveness multiplies with Porzingis back in the fold.  If he’s able to engage the defensive big and force the switch, Irving will find himself crossmatched on an island with Porzingis at the nail while Boston’s snipers disperse the arc, armed and dangerous. White loves to sit behind ball screens and launch three-pointers off the dribble, so trying to warp under the initial screen probably doesn’t work for the Mavericks either. 

I’d hedge these actions if I were Dallas, which Gafford and Lively are uniquely equipped to execute given their mobility. This allows Irving to chase over screens and use the back-side wing to tag Porzingis’ roll/pop until the big can recover. Tatum will incinerate this coverage with crosscourt rifles to corner shooters, but White suffers from slower processing speed in such scenarios. If the Mavericks nail the timing on these rotations, they’ll escape switches without allowing high-percentage shots.

Brown has been particularly aggressive in seeking out the Doncic matchup, either through shake-and-bake face-ups or by pinning him in the post and exploding for powerful finishes. Boston can set the table for these opportunities by flowing into DHOs or simply bringing Doncic into ball screens with the sole intention of forcing the switch.

This is where Dallas likely sends another defender. Brown is a shaky playmaker who’s easily sped up by defensive pressure. If he’s making sharp reads and tight-roping passes through narrow windows to perimeter shooters, tip your cap.

Closing Remarks

Candidly, this is one of the most fascinating Finals matchups. The unique compositions of both the Mavericks and Celtics make way for pivotal tactical adjustments. The Kyrie-vs.-Boston, Porzingis-vs.-Dallas, and Luka-vs.-Tatum rivalries will be dramatized to the max. Rising superstars are on the brink of immortality; inject seven games of this into my blood.

Game 1 tips off Thursday night at 8:30 pm EST on ABC.